Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Strengthening Capacity to Manage Ecosystems Sustainably for Human Well-Being

The Global Scenarios Assessment

The Scenarios Working Group considered the possible evolution of ecosystem services during the twenty-first century by developing four global scenarios exploring plausible future changes in drivers, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and human well-being.

Three of four detailed scenarios examined by the Scenarios Working Group suggest that significant changes in policies, institutions, and practices can mitigate some but not all of the negative consequences of growing pressures on ecosystems, but the changes required are substantial and are not currently under way.


  • Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, USA
  • Prabhu Pingali, FAO, Italy 

Technical support:  

Working Group Meeting Schedule

  • Meeting #1: April 2002, Trinidad & Tobago
  • Meeting #2: March  2003, Costa Rica
  • Meeting #3: April 2004, Canada