Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Strengthening Capacity to Manage Ecosystems Sustainably for Human Well-Being

Ecosystems & Human Well-Being: Volume 2

Scenarios

If we know enough to act, what might be the consequences of our actions? Scenarios are an invaluable tool for analyzing complex systems and understanding possible outcomes. This second volume of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment series explores the implications of four different approaches for managing ecosystem services in the face of growing human demand for them:

  • The Global Orchestration approach is defined as socially conscious globalization, one in which we emphasize equity, economic growth, and public goods, reacting to ecosystem problems when they reach critical stages.
  • Order from Strength represents a regionalized approach, in which our emphasis is on security and economic growth, again reacting to ecosystem problems only as they arise.
  • Adapting Mosaic is also a regionalized approach, but one that emphasizes proactive management of ecosystems, local adaptation, and flexible governance.
  • TechnoGarden is a globalized approach with an emphasis on green technology and a proactive approach to managing ecosystems.

The Scenarios volume will help decision-makers and managers identify development paths that better maintain the resilience of ecosystems, and can reduce the risk of damage to human well-being and the environment.

Order now from Island Press

Sign up for email updates

Chapters

Contents, Foreword, Preface [pdf, 1640 KB]

01. MA Conceptual Framework [pdf, 394 KB]

02. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective [pdf, 291 KB]

03. Ecology in Global Scenarios [pdf, 295 KB]

04. State of Art in Describing Future Changes in Ecosystem Services [pdf, 425 KB]

05. Rationale and Logics of the Scenarios [pdf, 490 KB]

06. Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios [pdf, 1619 KB]

07. Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Conditions and Services [pdf, 1492 KB]

08. Scenarios [pdf, 1872 KB]

09. Ecosystem Services across Scenarios [pdf, 4072 KB]

10. Biodiversity Across Scenarios [pdf, 1936 KB]

11. Human Well-being Across Scenarios [pdf, 266 KB]

12. Trade-offs Among Ecosystem Services [pdf, 307 KB]

13. Synthesis: Lessons Learned [pdf, 427 KB]

14. Synthesis: Policy Implications [pdf, 603 KB]

Appendices [pdf, 4521 KB]