From: Subject: =?Windows-1252?Q?Folha_Online_-_Ci=EAncia_-_Humanos_esgotam_capital_natur?= =?Windows-1252?Q?al_da_Terra=2C_dizem_cientistas_-_30/03/2005?= Date: Mon, 11 Apr 2005 11:10:11 -0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C53E87.071E71F0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1165 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C53E87.071E71F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/ciencia/ult306u13157.shtml Folha Online - Ci=EAncia - Humanos esgotam capital = natural da Terra, dizem cientistas - 30/03/2005
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30/03/2005 - = 08h18

Humanos esgotam capital natural da Terra, = dizem=20 cientistas

CLAUDIO=20 ANGELO
da Folha de S.Paulo

A humanidade = est=E1=20 fazendo um saque a descoberto no grande (por=E9m finito) = banco dos=20 ecossistemas globais. O resultado =E9 um colapso futuro na = capacidade=20 do planeta de fornecer bens e servi=E7os naturais aos seres = humanos,=20 cujo primeiro efeito pr=E1tico deve ser a impossibilidade de = atingir=20 as metas das Na=E7=F5es Unidas de combate =E0 fome em = 2015.

Quem=20 diz isso desta vez n=E3o s=E3o os ambientalistas, mas um = grupo de 1.350=20 cientistas de 95 pa=EDses, inclusive o Brasil. De 2001 a = 2005, sob a=20 =E9gide da ONU, eles produziram o diagn=F3stico mais = completo j=E1 feito=20 da sa=FAde dos ecossistemas e de sua rela=E7=E3o com a = manuten=E7=E3o da vida=20 humana. O esfor=E7o resultou num relat=F3rio apresentado = hoje a governos=20 do mundo inteiro --no Brasil, numa cerim=F4nia em Bras=EDlia = presidida=20 pela ministra do Meio Ambiente, Marina Silva.

As = conclus=F5es=20 da chamada Avalia=E7=E3o Ecossist=EAmica do Mil=EAnio, como = quase tudo o que=20 diz respeito ao ambiente global, s=E3o desalentadoras: quase = dois=20 ter=E7os dos chamados servi=E7os ambientais est=E3o em = decl=EDnio acelerado.=20 Isso significa que a capacidade do planeta de fornecer peixe = e =E1gua,=20 reciclar nutrientes do solo, minimizar o impacto de = desastres=20 naturais (como o maremoto de dezembro na =C1sia) e controlar = o clima=20 local est=E1 comprometida.

Pior ainda: as = altera=E7=F5es feitas nos=20 ecossistemas, especialmente nos =FAltimos 50 anos, est=E3o = provavelmente=20 aumentando o risco de mudan=E7as abruptas, como explos=E3o = de epidemias=20 --como a de c=F3lera que afetou a =C1frica subsaariana = durante o El Ni=F1o=20 de 1997/ 98--, eutrofiza=E7=E3o de =E1guas costeiras e = mudan=E7a clim=E1tica=20 regional, induzida por desmatamento.

Para quem acha = que=20 mudan=E7as ambientais n=E3o passam de amea=E7as = intang=EDveis pairando sobre=20 as pr=F3ximas gera=E7=F5es em algum futuro remoto, a = Avalia=E7=E3o do Mil=EAnio=20 tem uma proje=E7=E3o imediata: a degrada=E7=E3o dos solos e = a baixa=20 disponibilidade de =E1gua doce, especialmente na =C1frica e = no sul da=20 =C1sia, devem impedir o mundo de alcan=E7ar o chamado = Objetivo do=20 Mil=EAnio de cortar pela metade o n=FAmero de famintos em=20 2015.

"Um dos poucos servi=E7os ambientais em = ascens=E3o =E9 a=20 produ=E7=E3o de alimentos, mas n=E3o ao ponto de atingir os = objetivos [de=20 desenvolvimento] do mil=EAnio", disse =E0 Folha o engenheiro = florestal=20 Rodrigo Victor, do Instituto Florestal de S=E3o Paulo, que = participa=20 de uma das etapas do diagn=F3stico.

Quatro cen=E1rios = montados=20 pelos cientistas para o futuro prev=EAem, ainda, que mais = 10% ou 20%=20 das florestas do mundo ser=E3o convertidas em lavoura e = pasto at=E9 2050=20 e que a superexplora=E7=E3o dos estoques de peixe deva = crescer ainda=20 mais. Tr=EAs deles projetam um aumento de 10% a 20% no fluxo = de=20 nitrog=EAnio para =E1guas costeiras, ampliando a = eutrofiza=E7=E3o e a perda=20 de biodiversidade.

Uma das recomenda=E7=F5es do = estudo aos=20 tomadores de decis=E3o =E9 uma reestrutura=E7=E3o na maneira = dos economistas=20 de fazer contas.

At=E9 agora, a maioria dos = servi=E7os ambientais=20 pertence ao reino daquilo que os economistas chamam de=20 "externalidades", ou seja, fatores que n=E3o interferem nos = custos=20 econ=F4micos. O valor da poliniza=E7=E3o de lavouras por = insetos que=20 habitam uma floresta vizinha, por exemplo, n=E3o =E9 = computado na hora=20 de calcular o valor total daquela floresta.

Um estudo = feito=20 em dez pa=EDses do Mediterr=E2neo e citado no relat=F3rio = mostrou, por=20 exemplo, que servi=E7os como recrea=E7=E3o, seq=FCestro de = carbono, produtos=20 florestais n=E3o-madeireiros e prote=E7=E3o de mananciais = respondiam por=20 at=E9 96% do valor total das florestas. Esses servi=E7os = s=E3o=20 desperdi=E7ados quando uma floresta =E9 convertida em pasto = ou planta=E7=E3o=20 pelo valor da sua madeira. Algo equivalente a queimar=20 dinheiro.

"A degrada=E7=E3o dos servi=E7os de = ecossistemas=20 representa a perda de um ativo", afirmam os cientistas. Como = tal=20 degrada=E7=E3o n=E3o aparece na balan=E7a comercial, = pa=EDses como o Equador,=20 o Cazaquist=E3o e a Eti=F3pia, que tiveram um aumento de seu = PIB em 2001=20 e experimentaram perda de florestas e recursos = energ=E9ticos, teriam=20 na verdade preju=EDzo caso o passivo ambiental fosse=20 inclu=EDdo.

A maioria dos servi=E7os ambientais ainda = n=E3o t=EAm um=20 mercado, embora o seq=FCestro de carbono j=E1 seja = valor=E1vel com a=20 entrada em vigor do Protocolo de Kyoto.

Mesmo assim, = os=20 custos associados =E0 perda de alguns desses servi=E7os j=E1 = se fazem=20 sentir. Que o digam os pescadores de bacalhau da Terra Nova, = no=20 Canad=E1, que tiveram de parar de trabalhar nos anos 90 pelo = esgotamento do peixe, com preju=EDzo de US$ 2 = bilh=F5es.

No Reino=20 Unido, os preju=EDzos causados pela agricultura a =E1gua, = solos e=20 biodiversidade em 1996 foram de US$ 2,6 bilh=F5es, ou 9% da = receita=20 agr=EDcola dos pa=EDs na d=E9cada de 90. E as perdas = econ=F4micas causadas=20 por desastres naturais no mundo cresceram dez vezes de 1950 = a 2003=20 --para US$ 70 bilh=F5es por ano. N=FAmeros que n=E3o s=E3o = ladainha de=20 ambientalista.

S=E3o Paulo

A = Avalia=E7=E3o=20 Ecossist=EAmica do Mil=EAnio foi encomendada em 2000 pelo=20 secret=E1rio-geral da ONU, Kofi Annan, e organizada nos = mesmos moldes=20 que o IPCC, o painel de cientistas encarregado de avaliar o = estado=20 do conhecimento sobre o clima da Terra. Um de seus = coordenadores,=20 ali=E1s, =E9 Robert Watson, ex-presidente do IPCC.

A = maior parte=20 do trabalho consiste em reunir toda a produ=E7=E3o = cient=EDfica sobre os=20 ecossistemas. Mas a avalia=E7=E3o traz, ainda, estudos de = caso feitos em=20 33 regi=F5es do planeta. No Brasil, o ecossistema escolhido = foi a=20 Reserva da Biosfera do Cintur=E3o Verde de S=E3o = Paulo.

O=20 mapeamento dos servi=E7os ambientais prestados pelo = cintur=E3o =E0 capital=20 paulista --que v=E3o da regula=E7=E3o do clima ao controle = de enchentes--=20 come=E7a neste ano e vai at=E9 2007.

Resultados = preliminares=20 ser=E3o apresentados em S=E3o Paulo nesta sexta-feira, = juntamente com=20 resultados finais da avalia=E7=E3o de Portugal e do deserto = de Atacama,=20 no Chile.

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    \n'; ca_content +=3D '' + TR_array[i][2] + '<\/a>
    \n'; ca_content +=3D TR_array[i][3] + '
    \n'; ca_content +=3D TR_array[i][1]; ca_content +=3D '<\/p>'; } ca_content +=3D '

    \n'; ca_content +=3D 'Anuncie na TeRespondo<\/a>\n'; ca_content +=3D '<\/p>\n' ca_content +=3D '<\/td><\/tr><\/table>\n'; if( document.getElementById ){ x =3D document.getElementById( "contextual_ads" ); x.innerHTML =3D ca_content; } } // Fun=E7=E3o usada no spy pixel para encodar as urls function url_encode( str ) { var encoded =3D "" ; var valid_uri_chars =3D = "abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ0123456789$-_.+!*'()= ," ; var hex_chars =3D "0123456789ABCDEF" ; for ( var i =3D 0 ; i < str.length ; i++ ) { if ( valid_uri_chars.indexOf( str.charAt( i ) ) =3D=3D -1 ) encoded +=3D "%" + hex_chars.charAt( str.charCodeAt( i ) >> 4 ) + = hex_chars.charAt( str.charCodeAt( i ) & 0xF ) ; else encoded +=3D str.charAt( i ) ; } return encoded ; } // Retorna um n=FAmero rand=F4mico de 10 digitos function rand(){ var r =3D new String( Math.round( Math.random()*100000000 ) ) ; while( r.length < 10 ) r =3D "0" + r ; return r ; } // Fun=E7=E3o que escreve o c=F3digo das pe=E7as publicit=E1rias function folha_ads_show( site , size , expandable ) { var rand =3D Math.floor( 100000000 * Math.random() ) ; var position , width , height ; if ( expandable !=3D "1" ) expandable =3D 0 ; if ( size =3D=3D '468x60' ) { position =3D '1' ; width =3D '468' ; = height =3D '60' } ; if ( size =3D=3D '120x60' ) { position =3D '3' ; width =3D '120' ; = height =3D '60' } ; if ( size =3D=3D '120x600' ) { position =3D '6' ; width =3D '120' ; = height =3D '600' } ; if ( size =3D=3D '300x250' ) { position =3D '0' ; width =3D '1' ; = height =3D '1' } ; document.write( '